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Prediction for CME (2025-11-03T09:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-03T09:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42333/-1
CME Note: Large partial halo CME visible to the E/NE in SOHO LASCO C2 (for a few frames before a data gap), GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2. The source is an M1.6 class flare from AR 14274 (N25E90) with associated filament ejecta, moving/opening field lines, a rising loop, post-eruptive arcades and possible EUV wave as seen in GOES SUVI wavelengths 195, 284, 131, 304, 171. A separate M5.0 class flare follows the first flare closely which appears to have been the source of the EUV wave and may contribute to the shock structure associated with this CME, especially the SE portion of it. The EUV wave is best seen in GOES SUVI 195 spreading towards the coronal hole visible nearing the central Earth-facing disk.
CME Arrival Time: -----
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: -----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-05T17:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)
Prediction Method Note:

KSWC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7e
Resolution: low (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a5b1
WSA version: 2.2


CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-11-03 12:51
Radial velocity (km/s): 1353 
Longitude (deg): -43
Latitude (deg): 26
Half-angular width (deg): 43

Notes: by Soojeong Jang

Lead Time: 39.55 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by RWC KSWC (KASA) on 2025-11-04T01:27Z

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